NFL Divisional Round Predictions
- pcmaxx6
- Jan 19, 2024
- 13 min read
Dude…
The Wild Card Weekend is behind us and the playoffs continue to ramp up! The Chiefs defeated the Dolphins. The Texans beat the Browns. The Bills beat the Steelers. The Buccaneers beat the Eagles. The Lions beat the Rams. Finally, the Packers beat the Cowboys. Now, The Dudes have your latest predictions for the divisional round. Who will move onto the conference championships? Find out who The Dudes think.
The Dudes predictions record:
PC: 5-1
How6rd: 3-3
K Stelt: 4-2
How6rd: Well who expected this matchup to happen a week ago? Outside of Houston fans it definitely wasn’t anywhere near a favored pick as the Browns’ defense and late-season performance overall gave many doubts that a young squad like the Texans would pull it off, but Bobby Slowik’s offensive play calling and the rest of the team put Cleveland’s “Cinderella Story” to bed way sooner than many expected. This week we’re back to everyone doubting the Texans and now more rightfully so being on the road against the Ravens who haven’t looked anything bad in weeks and nearly multiple months. The Texans definitely shouldn’t be overlooked again this week after what they’ve done to close out the season and outsmart a defense that gave other teams across the NFL pure hell in the Wild Card, and if CJ Stroud is as unfazed in Baltimore as he was in his first ever playoff game he may just have another great day. Meanwhile, Baltimore are no Browns between having the league MVP at QB and an all-around well-rounded team that has film on what Houston did so well to win last weekend.
I think this will be a fun matchup at first, but the defensive players and scheme that has been engraved into this Ravens team have shaken up many who have been successful. CJ Stroud is incredible and I am not putting doubt that he potentially can beat the odds again, yet he just isn’t in that tier of “arguably the greatest QB right now” to make something of his own if Slowik’s game plan struggles this week.
Ravens win 27-20
K-Stelt: With the amount of hype the Texans produced last weekend I think we need to understand something very clearly. The Brown's defense was exposed from a young DC. And without two picks in that Cleveland game. The Ravens are far better than the Browns and what they have to offer in a playoff game. Lamar is here to shut the haters up. He’s 1-8 against the spread when he has an extended rest. But those stats don’t matter in this matchup. This will either be a Ravens blow-out or a close game. Although Lamar will win the MVP. I think I have a sad prediction here. CJ Stroud will beat the Ravens and put Lamar in another hole.
Texans win 28-24
PC: Yes, we all know that the Ravens come out flat everytime in the playoffs. We’ve seen the Ravens choke. CJ Stroud is walking into The Nest in Baltimore to play giant killer. He’s already beat the best QB in the Raven’s franchise history in Joe Flacco. CJ Stroud showed off his pure arm strength with a gorgeous deep ball to Nico Collins. Coach DeMeco Ryans had this highly praised defense falling for every ball fake, and exposing the secondary with an air assault. CJ threw the ball all over the field. The Raven’s welcome this foe into Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is ready to run around this stout Houston defense. He is the MVP after getting a bag in the offseason. Zay Flowers is one of those elite rookie WRs that came out of this draft. He’s crisp cuts and electrifying speed, he’s torn up defenses. After JK Dobbins went down with a season ending injury, the Raven’s RB room got to work. Gus Edwards has become the #1 back and is running like a freight train. Odell Beckham Jr. is always lurking to make another Superman catch. This game is going to depend on who can stay hot the longest. Lamar has been dicing up the top teams of this league, but may come out slow due to having a week off. CJ has already proven he can play under the spotlight. However, only a select few can keep it going for three more games. I’m going to rely on the MVP over the star studded rookie. I’m not counting out CJ though. He’s proving to be a phenomenal athlete on and off the field. DeMeco Ryans has a squad that I believe just lacks experience. They’ll be a major contender next year, It's just Lamar’s year.
Ravens win 33-27
How6rd: Welp, it looks like we got ourselves another huge playoff game building up to be a classic between the Bills and Chiefs and this time it’s a much different story than it was two years ago. The game will take place in Buffalo for a rare Chiefs playoff road game and both of these teams’ defenses are much more talented than in years past. It’s been a weird year for the Chiefs in terms of their offense looking the least entertaining it has been since Patrick Mahomes started for the Chiefs as the receiving core is arguably the worst in the league, but the defense has been completely the opposite for the better as the pass rush has looked nice and it’s been really nice for their pass defense acting as one of the best units in the league headlined by L’Jarius Sneed. The Bills on the other hand have had a weird year for a much better case winning their last seven games starting with the last time these two faced each other early on and have an improved defensive front with a pass defense that probably has been the best in the NFL in their hot stretch with the acquisition of Rasul Douglas being ginormous. The mainstream matchup is obviously Mahomes against the Bills' defense as it doesn’t matter what weapons he has he will do SOMETHING even if it’s not like in years past, but the biggest matchup is the Bills' new-look offense against the stout Chiefs' defense and more specifically Joe Brady, in charge of the offense, against Steve Spagnuolo, in charge of the defense, and that is something where we will either see why the Chiefs admire Spagnuolo so much or Joe Brady will prosper over the opposition once again.
This game will be a huge chess matchup on the road and if the Chiefs shoot themselves when they have the opportunity to hurt the Bills on offense it could be a long 60 minutes, therefore I think this is a close matchup but the Bills' defense will make big plays down the stretch for the Bills offense to do enough of their job.
Bills win 23-21
K-Stelt: The Chiefs and Bills. The game we wanted. The game we needed. The difference here is that the Chiefs play a road playoff game against the Bills instead of the other way around. But if we break it down on paper we need to look at what will happen. Although Joe Brady has this team on a winning streak, the Chief’s defense will simply not allow the Bills to score more than 17 points. The Chiefs have their entire defense healthy, which they didn’t have last time when these two teams played. We then look to the other side, the Chiefs offense vs the Bills defense. The number 9 offense against the number 9 defense. A pretty good matchup. The only mystery is who the linebackers will be for the Bills. And if they are limited on Linebackers, get ready for a Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice explosion. But other than that it’s tough to tell. The Bills are known to play a lot of zone. But they also are known to have a good front 4. So basically the game, in my opinion, will come down to who owns the trenches when the Chiefs offense and Bills defense are on the field together. That's if the Bills remember Pacheco (they don't, he was injured in week 14). But let me remind you. Patrick Mahomes has only played one bad half of football in his playoff career. I will not bet against Mahomes until he proves me otherwise.
Chiefs win 27-17
PC: The true rematch we all wanted. Except, Patty has to go on the road to play up in the bitter north. Josh Allen and the Bills wait for this moment for a long time. Stephon Diggs' photo after losing to KC and watching as the Chiefs celebrated, may go down as one of the coldest photos in NFL history. You just have to finish the story. The Bills were down and looking like they weren’t going to make the playoffs. At 6-6, things were looking bleak. Then, the real Josh Allen showed up. Josh has a cannon for an arm. He’s already proven that. He’s elevated his game to another level this year. He’s not as afraid to go and run the football when he needs to. It’s been key for the Bills all season. James Cook is running like a pissed off bull. Stephon Diggs is still doing his thing and guys like Dalton Kincaid, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox are also elevating their game. Finally, this defense has seemed to have gotten their shit together. However, you remember who you’re playing right? Do you remember what happened last time? I honestly don’t know if there is another Achilles-esk team in this year's playoffs. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is healthy and playing like Playoff Patty. We know the 2x Super Bowl Champion will be in his A game. His partner in crime Travis Kelce will also be a huge threat. Yes, he hasn’t been the same Kelce, but he’s still the best TE in the league. This defense is the biggest difference for this team. Willie Gay and Nick Bolton play the linebacker like cavalrymen. Charging in and stopping any rushing attack someone throws at them. The secondary is led by lock down corner L’Jarius Sneed. I haven’t given him the flowers he deserves, I apologize. Sneed is just a pesky, true grit corner. He locked up one of this year's top WRs. A near 2,000 yard season. Sneed dismantled him. This defense has been the saving grace for this team all year. Remember Achillies always had that heel that was eventually going to be his downfall. The WR room for the Chiefs is their heel. Sure, Rashee has stepped up in a big way, but we’re relying on a rookie to be our #1 WR. Skyy Moore is coming back from IR, but he hasn’t done anything all season. The heel of the Chiefs is mighty. It’s just… it’s Patrick Mahomes, and I’ll be damned if I pick against him. He’s proven he can take a semi broken team all the way. I’m not going to be the idiot who bets against him.
Chiefs win 24-20
How6rd: If someone told me the Packers were going to beat the Cowboys a week ago not telling me how that game was going to go, otherwise I would’ve thought this game would be a cakewalk for San Francisco, but that won’t be the reality at all. This Packers team is the hottest team in the NFC currently and after the game they played last week this is no ordinary seventh-seed team, as Jordan Love has had an incredible run in his first full year starting and Matt LaFleur has proven to be one of the best coaches in the NFL. The 49ers will easily be their toughest test of the year as not only have they been kryptonite to Green Bay in the last couple of decades, but San Francisco truly looks like Super Bowl favorites with how talented they’ve been on both sides of the ball. The ‘Niners have looked unstoppable aside from the Ravens in the second half of the season and saying that they can be slowed down anytime soon regardless of any “rust” sounds crazy to say, but they also don’t look indestructible to a squad we saw last week beat the Cowboys. The 49ers have talent in Christian McCaffrey and their receiving core with Brock Purdy doing a good enough job in Kyle Shanahan’s talented system, not to mention their defense is a juggernaut containing Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Chase Young, etc., yet this Packers team is hungry for a win every week and the defense that seemed skeptical early on in the year looked especially impressive against a talented Cowboys offensive firing squad. Jordan Love and running back Aaron Jones are an insane tandem behind the offensive line, and if Jaire Alexander is on his “A” game along with the rest of the defense being physical enough to be top-10 in turnovers forced. That all being said, I personally believe there’s no chance Green Bay gets as many opportunities to turn small mental errors into big plays as they did multiple times against a shakier defense in the Cowboys.
This should definitely be a fun matchup if the Packers bring the same energy they’ve had recently against the 49ers, and with a huge negative for the 49ers being that they can’t get back into games after the opponent takes a solid early lead I believe if any team is going to stop the monster San Francisco squad it’ll be the giant slayer Green Bay Packers. All aboard the Love Train.
Packers win 31-17
K-Stelt: Listen, the Packers had the most impressive win this Wildcard weekend. But here's what I know about the 49ers. They beat good teams. They are a wagon. They have talent everywhere and they have a stud-filled defense. The important part about this game is the 49ers run game vs the Packers run defense. And that is all I need to predict who will win this game. The house money season the Packers have will come to an end when CMC has 180 yards from scrimmage. It was a good try by the Packers but it's a tough task to go and beat the 49ers.
49ers win 31-21
PC: Damn it How6rd you beat me to the punch. I wanted to be the only one going against the #1 seed. Jordan Love is blooming right in front of our eyes. He has progressed into another premier Green Bay QB. Bears fans are going to now hate the name Love for years to come. The 49ers are strong. Brock Purdy is a QB that could lead his massive weapons to the promised land. Christian McCafferey came to San Fran for a season like this. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are an insane duo that complement each other on another level. The defense is hungry and dominant. Nick Bosa leading the charge, while Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga are staples to help slow down this run game. You know when you have a gut feeling about something? That’s how I feel about the Packers. They’re young and hungry. Aaron Jones is looking healthy. Romeo Dobbs looks healthy. Hell, everyone looks healthy, which is why this team is coming together at the right time. It’s the NFL Playoffs, you can’t go with the crowd every time.
Packers win 21-17
How6rd: The Lions are a really solid team right now, yet I’m still stunned to say that they are just a game away from an NFC Championship appearance and three wins from a Super Bowl championship after so many mediocre seasons. I am also shocked to say that the Buccaneers look solid after barely winning a poor division and being led by Baker Mayfield who couldn’t get an outright starting QB spot on the Panthers a season ago. All this being said both of these squads have looked impressive with some (but little compared to their success) flops during the regular season and this is the game where all of those “flops'' can be put to rest and prove that they can compete. The Lions have a very great offense headed by coordinator Ben Johnson who hasn’t called a bad game in probably a month or at least without making good adjustments, and aside from the pass rush and pass defense the other side of the ball for Detroit has been very physical with no light hits being made on opposing offenses. The Buccaneers have the same story on defense not looking statistically pleasing yet they’ve made the big plays on the defensive line and in the backfield (shoutout Antoine Winfield Jr especially), and the offense has been lighting it up for the most part showing some inconsistencies yet really turning it up when it matters most.
I think this will be a physical showing from both defenses and the offenses will be slugging it out at first, but I think after seeing Dan Campbell outcoach one of the more decorated head guys’ in the league Sean McVay last weekend it’ll be more the same this week with Detroit making the big plays more consistently in the end.
Lions win 26-17
K-Stelt: The outcome of this will either be a Lions trip to the NFC Championship or Baker Mayfield in the NFC Championship. The Bucs defense is a workhorse, and Todd Bowles is a mastermind at defense. But the Lions have a different type of drive that no other team has in the playoffs. The Defense is physical and explosive and the Offense is manageable. I think the Bucs put up a good fight here but Baker Mayfield will get exposed against this defense, which is much better than what the Eagles provided last weekend. I still think Baker should get a bag after this season but the Lions are America’s team, and they will pursue it.
Lions win 24-17
PC: I love both of these stories for either one of these teams. The Lions have won their second playoff game ever, and now they get to host another. This Dan Cambell team has been a privilege to watch. This tough nosed team is just the style of football that it needed. Everyone is air raiding the ball and playing by the numbers. This Lions team reminds you of the teams of old. It’s put your hand in the mud and run the damn ball. Their studded running back duo can beat you in different ways. David Montgomery runs through the hole created by the offensive line. He can be patient and let the holes develop, or he can create his own. Then, Jahmyr Gibbs comes into the game and runs around you. He’s shifty and explosive. He’s going to gain 10 yards if he gets into the second level. Amon-Ra St. Brown is leading this explosive WR group as a top 5 receiver in the league this year. Josh Reynolds is that deep ball threat that has been turning it up another notch every week. Jameson Williams is quicker than lighting and can turn the momentum with one explosive play. Their incredible TE in Sam LaPorta that I've been a huge fan of this entire season, seeks to make a name for himself. All led by Jared Goff, who proved last week he was worth trading for. The Buccaneers came out of the worst division in football and defeated the former NFC Champions last week. The Bucs are led by none other than Baker Mayfield. The young prodigy from Oklahoma was a former #1 pick to the Cleveland Browns. Things didn’t work out and Baker bounced around until he landed in Tampa. He was given a shot by Todd Bowels and the coaching staff. Baker has exceeded expectations. Tampa wasn’t supposed to be good, Mike Evans was almost a lock to leave after this season. However, Bowels and this staff pulled this rag tag team into winning a game in the playoffs. Both Cinderella stories, but one must have their magic glass slipper to be shattered. I think Detroit has a better group. I think the team is 100% committed to the style of play Dan wants them to have. The Bcs have that, but it just seems like they’re missing one key piece. I think the Lions squeak by to host a NFC Championship game.
Lions win 27-17
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